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April 13, 2026

Beacon Weekly Investment Insight 4.13.26

Lead of Investment Strategy, Charles Pawlik, CFA, CFP®, provides insights to guide you through changing market conditions. Please read the full text below or download the PDF version.

As geopolitical developments in the Middle East continue to be front and center, equity markets closed in positive territory for the second week in a row last week, with equity indices posting their best week since November. Stocks were bolstered by the announcement of a two-week conditional ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, during which shipping traffic was to be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire agreement has proved fragile with Iran claiming that the agreement had been violated on account of Israeli attacks on Lebanon, despite this reportedly not having been part of the initial agreement, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remaining at a near standstill. Despite this, further de-escalation momentum drove optimism for markets with a 3.56% advance for the S&P 500 for the week, and with the Dow Jones up 3.04% and the tech heavy Nasdaq up 4.68%.

Mega-cap tech names Amazon and Meta were up 13.6% and 9.6% for the week, respectively with Amazon’s CEO Andy Jassy highlighting strong AI-driven momentum, and Meta debuting its first model from Superintelligence Labs and announcing an expanded partnership with CoreWeave for AI cloud infrastructure. The strong gains in the equity markets came alongside a significant drop in WTI crude oil prices, which settled down 13.8% for the week. Treasuries were mixed, with the 10-yr. treasury yield ultimately closing the week where it started at 4.31%, amid a $39 billion auction that drew below average demand. The dollar was weaker by -1.3% on the week, which helped gold to advance 1.8% on the week.

Over the weekend, all eyes were on peace talks between the U.S. and Iran held in Pakistan, with Vice President JD Vance, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, meeting with an Iranian delegation led by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The two sides could not come to a formal agreement though, owing to differences of opinion regarding control over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear ambitions. President Trump responded on Sunday with an edict to block all ships attempting to enter or exit this crucial waterway (the scope of this was subsequently dialed back to target only Iranian ports for reference). Investors will be eager to see how this situation unfolds as the upcoming trading week progresses.

There was also a variety of consequential economic data released last week as well, including the March FOMC minutes which leaned hawkish as expected. Chair Powell signaled that rate cuts depend on further core inflation progress, and fewer Fed officials projected more than one cut in 2026. Inflation risks were seen as skewed to the upside in part due to rising oil prices, with the labor market viewed as balanced but with downside risk. It was noted that economic growth remains solid, supported by AI investment and resilient consumer spending.

Inflation data was also in focus, with both the Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation), and CPI reports released last week. The February Core PCE report was in line with expectations, increasing 0.4% for the month and 3.0% year-over-year. The Core CPI (excludes food and energy) reading for March came in slightly cooler than expected, rising 0.2% for the month relative to expectations for a 0.3% increase, and 2.6% year-over-year relative to expectations for a 2.7% increase. The headline CPI figure accelerated to an increase of 3.3% as expected, as energy rose by 10.9% (gasoline up 21.2%) due to the Iran conflict. The March ISM Services reading came in at 54%, down from 56.1% in the prior month, and below expectations of 55.4%. The report showed higher new orders, higher prices, and lower employment readings. February durable goods orders came in below consensus, declining by -1.4%, while factory orders were flat for the month. Q4 GDP growth was revised down to 0.5% reflecting lower investment. Jobless claims ticked higher for the week to 219,000 from the prior reading of 203,000 and above expectations for 210,000, however they remain relatively subdued. Consumer sentiment hit a record low, dropping by over 10% to a reading of 47.6 due to concerns over the Iran war and inflation.

The first quarter earnings season will kick off in earnest this week, with the big banks such as JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley all set to report earnings. First quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 is broadly expected to be quite strong with earnings growth estimates currently over 12%, however investors will be listening closely to management commentary around anticipated impacts from the war and inflation, and the economic environment. This week will also bring the release of additional inflation data, with the PPI (producer price index) report due out on Tuesday, existing home sales data, jobless claims, as well as a variety of Fedspeak.

 

Market Scorecard:	4/10/2026	YTD Price Change
Dow Jones Industrial Average	$47,916.57	-0.31%
S&P 500 Index	$6,816.89	-0.42%
NASDAQ Composite	$22,902.89	-1.46%
Russell 1000 Growth Index	$4,493.35	-5.69%
Russell 1000 Value Index	$2,182.91	5.37%
Russell 2000 Small Cap Index	$2,630.59	5.99%
MSCI EAFE Index	$3,045.95	5.30%
US 10 Year Treasury Yield	4.31%	14 basis points
WTI Crude Oil	$96.57	68.18%
Gold $/Oz.	$4,787.40	10.28%