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First Quarter Summary
Stocks rebounded strongly during the first quarter of 2019 on the heels of its worst fourth quarter since The Great Depression (1931). In our view, the rebound was due to three primary reasons. First, the Federal Reserve abruptly changed its stance on monetary policy from one that was moderately hawkish to one that is very dovish. Second, the U.S. appears to be close to a trade deal with China, one of its most important trade partners. The threat of further significant tariffs imposed on Chinese goods roiled the market in 4Q 2018. Third, the longest ever federal government shutdown that also began in 4Q 2018 ended in late January of this year.