Beacon Trust's Monthly Commentary updates clients with the Investment Department's current investment strategy with discussions of the economy, securities markets, and recent developments.

 

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August 2008


07/31/08

S&P500 1267
DJIA 11378
10-yr Tsy 102.50%


August 2008
  • August 2008 Comments - Rebates and Realty, Which Prevails?
  • This Month's Focus - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

July 2008


06/30/08

S&P500 1280
DJIA 11350
5-yr Tsy 102.20%


July 2008
  • July 2008 Comments- The Difference A Month Makes
  • This Month's Fixed Income Focus

June 2008



June 2008
  • June 2008 Comments- End of The Spring Thaw?
  • Political Resolution or More Uncertainty
  • This Month's Fixed Income Focus - Cross- Currents in the Bond Market

May 2008



May 2008
  • May 2008 Comments- The Check is in the Mail
  • Stock Market Rally- Bear Trap or New Bull Market
  • Inflation Trends Bear Watching
  • This Month's Focus - Mixed Data for April, Bond Market Conundrum, and Increasing Budget Deficit

April 2008


03/31/08

S&P500 1323
DJIA 12263
5-yr Tsy 2.43%


April 2008
  • April 2008 Comments- A Month for the Record Books
  • Is the End in Sight
  • Beacon Investment Strategy
  • This month's Focus-"Unprecedented" Fed Response, Proposed Regulatory Overhaul and Fixed Income Perspective

March 2008


02/28/08

S&P500 1331
DJIA 12266
10-yr Tsy 105.91


March 2008
  • March 2008 Comments- Political Sideshow Offers Limited Economic Solutions
  • Economy Continues to Suffer From Asset Based Deterioration
  • This Month's Focus - Municipal Bonds, Treasury Yield Curve and the Federal Reserve

February 2008


01/31/08

S&P500 1379
DJIA 12650
10-yr Tsy 3.60 %


February 2008
  • February 2008 Comments- Interest Rate Cuts & Fiscal Stimulus. Is It Enough?
  • Federal Reserve Asleep At The Switch?
  • Are Interest Rate Reductions and Fiscal Stimulus The Answer?
  • This Month's Focus - The Federal Reserve's Easing Moves in Perspective

January 2008


12/31/07

S&P500 1479
DJIA 13366
10-yr Tsy 4.10 %


January 2008
  • January 2008 Comments- Home Price Erosion Still Impacting The Economy
  • Equity Market Outlook - Equity Prices Will Lead The Recovery
  • This Month's Focus - An Update On Municipal Bond Insurance

December 2007


11/31/07

S&P500 1481
DJIA 13372
10-yr Tsy 3.94 %


December 2007

  • December 2007 Comments- More Turmoil Related to Reality
  • Equity Market Outlook - More Pressure From Economic Concerns
  • This Month's Focus - Fixed Income Potpourri

November 2007


10/31/07

S&P500 1549
DJIA 13930
10-yr Tsy 4.47 %


November 2007

  • November 2007 Comments- Federal Reserve to the Rescue?
  • Equity Market Outlook - Volatility Growing As Concerns Mount
  • This Month's Focus - Dollar Weakness Favorable or Unfavorable for the US Economy?

October 2007


09/28//07

S&P500 1527
DJIA 13896
10-yr Tsy 4.59 %


October 2007

  • October 2007 Comments- Tentative Signs of a Rebound, But Can It Last?
  • Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Blinks
  • Equity Market Outlook - Low, Low, Low Expectations, But....
  • This Month's Focus - What's the Fed Likely To Do Next?

September 2007


08/31/07

S&P500 1474
DJIA 13358
10-yr Tsy 4.62 %


September 2007

  • September 2007 Comments- It's Official, Stock Market Corrects
  • Economic Outlook - Still Growing But at a Slower Pace
  • Financial Market Outlook - Earnings Growth Slowing But Still Strong
  • This Month's Focus - Foreign Ownership of U.S. Treasuries (Data Are As of March 31, 2007)

August 2007


07/31/07

S&P500 1455
DJIA 13212
10-yr Tsy 4.77 %


August 2007

  • July 2007 Comments- Another Summer Swoon
  • Economic Outlook - Fed receives Some Good News
  • Financial Market Outlook - Strong Earnings Overshadowed By Subprime Fears
  • This Month's Focus - Dr. Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve System

July 2007


06/29/07

S&P500 1503
DJIA 13409
10-yr Tsy 5.03 %


July 2007

  • July 2007 Comments- Rising Rates Cause Volatility To Return To Stock Market
  • Economic Outlook - Fed Still Sees Greater Risk From Inflation
  • Financial Market Outlook - Earnings Reports The Next Market Signpost
  • This Month's Focus - Corporate Bonds

June 2007


05/31/07

S&P500 1531
DJIA 13628
10-yr Tsy 4.89 %


June 2007

  • June 2007 Comments- Stocks Climb A Wall Of Worry To A New Closing High
  • Economic Outlook - Fed Seeks To Earn Credibility With Focus On Inflation
  • Financial Market Outlook - Investors Focus On Economic Outlook
  • This Month's Focus - The Federal Budget

May 2007


04/31/07

S&P500 1482
DJIA 13063
10-yr Tsy 4.63 %


May 2007

  • May 2007 Comments- Strong Earnings And Liquidity Propel Market Higher
  • Economic Outlook - US Economic Growth Slows
  • Financial Market Outlook - Stocks Remain Supported By Fundamentals
  • This Month's Focus - The Employment Picture

April 2007


03/31/07

S&P500 1421
DJIA 12354
10-yr Tsy 4.65 %


April 2007

  • April 2007 Comments- Subprime Mortgage Worries Resurface Towards Month End
  • Economic Outlook - Continued Strong Employment Remains Key
  • Financial Market Outlook - Stocks In Trading Range Until Clarity On Housing Emerges
  • This Month's Focus - Subprime Mortgages

March 2007


02/28/07

S&P500 1407
DJIA 12269
10-yr Tsy 4.57 %


March 2007

  • March 2007 Comments- China Rout Leads Stocks Down Worldwide
  • Economic Outlook - GDP Indicates Growth Is Slowing But Consumer Still Supportive
  • Financial Market Outlook - Where Do We Go From Here?
  • This Month's Focus - Taxable Fixed Income

February 2007


01/31/07

S&P500 1438
DJIA 12622
10-yr Tsy 4.81 %


February 2007

  • February 2007 Comments- Solid Start to 2007 Despite Lack of Clarity
  • Economic Outlook - Growth Remains Solid, Inflation Moderates
  • Financial Market Outlook - Investors Complacent About Earnings Growth?
  • This Month's Focus - The Rebirth Of Dividends

January 2007


12/30/06

S&P500 1418
DJIA 12463
10-yr Tsy 4.70 %


January 2007

  • January 2007 Comments- Ending 2006 On Higher Ground
  • Economic Outlook - Housing On the Mend?
  • Financial Market Outlook - Easing Into The New Year
  • This Month's Focus - Is Fed Easing Good For Stocks?

December 2006


11/30/06

S&P500 1401
DJIA 12222
10-yr Tsy 4.46 %


December 2006

  • December 2006 Comments- Solid Month Amid Increased Volatility
  • Economic Outlook - Rising Inventories Reflect Slowing Demand and Production
  • Financial Market Outlook - Continued Strong Corporate Profits Remain Key
  • This Month's Focus - Democrats Take Control of The House and Senate

November 2006


10/31/06

S&P500 1378
DJIA 12081
10-yr Tsy 4.60 %


November 2006

  • November 2006 Comments- Earnings Still Solid But Guidance is Mixed
  • Economic Outlook - Third Quarter Real GDP Confirms Housing-Led Slowdown
  • Financial Market Outlook - Fourth Quarter Rally to Roll On?
  • This Month's Focus - Large-Caps Finally Flexing Some Muscle

October 2006


9/29/06

S&P500 1336
DJIA 11679
10-yr Tsy 4.63 %


October 2006

  • October 2006 Comments- Stocks End the Month and Quarter on a High Note
  • Economic Outlook - Housing's Impact By the Numbers
  • Financial Market Outlook - S&P Earnings Growth Still Strong But Decelerating
  • This Month's Focus - Private Equity Firms Are Turning to the Tech Sector for Buyouts

September 2006


08/31/06

S&P500 1304
DJIA 11381
10-yr Tsy 4.73 %


September 2006

  • September 2006 Comments -Finally a Good Month for Stocks
  • Economic Outlook - Housing and the Consumer, Perfect Together?
  • Financial Market Outlook -September & October - Spooky for Stocks?
  • This Month's Focus - Record Buybacks Boost Earnings Per Share

August 2006


07/31/06

S&P500 1277
DJIA 11186
10-yr Tsy 4.98 %


August 2006

  • August 2006 Comments -A Consumer-Led Slowdown
  • Economic Outlook - More of the Same
  • Financial Market Outlook - Large-Caps Look Relatively Cheap
  • This Month's Focus - What the NASDAQ Is Telling Us, Technically-Speaking

July 2006


06/30/06

S&P500 1270
DJIA 11150
10-yr Tsy 5.15 %


July 2006

  • July 2006 Comments -The FOMC Strikes Again, But the End Could Be Near
  • Economic Outlook - Softness is Evident
  • Financial Market Outlook - The Summer Doldrums?
  • This Month's Focus - Record M&A Deals Aim to Increase Shareholder Value

June 2006


05/31/06

S&P500 1270
DJIA 11168
10-yr Tsy 5.12 %


June 2006

  • May 2006 Comments -The Market's Wall of Worry
  • Economic Outlook - Oil and Housing Should Slow Growth
  • Financial Market Outlook - A "Soft Landing" Is Good For Stocks
  • This Month's Focus - What is a Market Correction?

May 2006


04/28/06

S&P500 1311
DJIA 11367
10-yr Tsy 5.05 %


May 2006

  • April 2006 Comments -Interest Rate Fears Keep Stocks Range Bound
  • Economic Outlook - Surprising Strength
  • Financial Market Outlook - Accentuate the Positive
  • This Month's Focus - Where Should I Invest Today?

April 2006


03/31/06

S&P500 1295
DJIA 11109
10-yr Tsy 4.85 %


April 2006

  • March 2006 Comments - Strong Quarter for Stocks
  • Economic Outlook - Balancing Act for the Fed
  • Financial Market Outlook - We've Come a Long Way
  • This Month's Focus - Which Portfolio is Right for Me?

March 2006


02/28/06

S&P500 1281
DJIA 10993
10-yr Tsy 4.55 %


March 2006

  • February 2006 Comments - Focus on the Red
  • Economic Outlook - Consumer Still Strong
  • Financial Market Outlook - Favor Stocks on Balance
  • This Month's Focus - The Inverted Yield Curve

February 2006


01/31/06

S&P500 1280
DJIA 10865
10-yr Tsy 4.52 %


February 2006

  • January 2006 Comments - Mr. Greenspan's Tenure Ends
  • Economic Outlook - The Economy Continues to Grow, Albeit at a Slower Pace
  • Financial Market Outlook - Domestic and International Corporate Profits Strong
  • This Month's Focus - Domestic Economic Indicators

January 2006


12/30/05

S&P500 1248
DJIA 10718
10-yr Tsy 4.39 %


January 2006

  • December 2005 Comments - Corporate Balance Sheets Healthier than Consumers
  • Economic Outlook - The End of Overnight Interest Rate Hikes is Near
  • Financial Market Outlook -SEC Reviews Hedge Funds. Money Market Rates Rising
  • This Month's Focus - Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

December 2005


11/30/05

S&P500 12049
DJIA 10806
10-yr Tsy 4.49 %


December 2005

  • November 2005 Comments - Energy Prices Fall, Consumer Sentiment & Markets Rise
  • Economic Outlook - Overall Growth Despite Pockets of Weakness
  • Financial Market Outlook -Record Corporate Profits Favor Stocks
  • This Month's Focus - Areas Benefiting from Rising Interest Rates

November 2005


10/31/05

S&P500 1207.01
DJIA 10440.01
10-yr Tsy 4.55 %


November 2005

  • October 2005 Comments - Rising Interest Rates, Profit Reports, Hurricane Excuses
  • Economic Outlook - Greenspan's Replacement, Storm Recovery, Lower Gas Prices
  • Financial Market Outlook -Interest Rates Rise, Strong Corporate Profits
  • This Month's Focus - Classes of Investments & Long Term Outlook

October 2005


09/31/05

S&P500 1228.81
DJIA 10538.00
10-yr Tsy 4.33 %


October 2005

  • September 2005 Comment - In Spite of Hurricanes, Inflation Fears Rise
  • Economic Outlook - Hurricane Season, Short & Long-Term Effects
  • Financial Market Outlook - Late Cyclicals and Defensive Stocks Should Outperform
  • This Month's Focus - Know Your Investment Objectives and Restraints

September 2005


08/31/05

S&P500 1220.33
DJIA 10481.60
10-yr Tsy 4.02 %


In Memory of Bill Ottterbein

  • August 2005 Comment - Strong Economy, Rising Interest Rates & High Energy Prices
  • Economic Outlook - Continued Global Growth At Varied Rates
  • Financial Market Outlook - Phase of Economic Cycle Favors Consistent Performing Company Stocks and Short Duration Bonds
  • This Month's Focus - Investment Style, Growth vs. Income, Size & Duration

August 2005


07/29/05

S&P500 1234.18
DJIA 10640.90
10-yr Tsy 4.28 %


In Memory of John Gustafson

  • July 2005 Comment - Strong Economy, Surging Stocks & Rising Interest Rates
  • Economic Outlook - Decelerating US Growth. New Legislation May Cause Bumps
  • Financial Market Outlook - Continued Economic Growth Results in Higher Stock Prices and Higher Interest Rates
  • This Month's Focus - China's Currency Revaluation and Its Implications

July 2005


06/30/05

S&P500 1191.33
DJIA 10275.00
10-yr Tsy 3.92 %


June Bugs

  • June 2005 Comments... Stocks Volatile..Bond Rates Remain Low
  • Economic Outlook... Economy Signals Mixed... Part of European In Recession With Unemployment High... Tough Year Ahead For Labor
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Consumer and Producer Prices Down... More Regulations Tightening Mortgage Credit... Energy & Highway Legislation
  • Stock Market Outlook... Industry Appeal Varies Widely... Large Caps Favored

June 2005


05/31/05

S&P500 1230.60
DJIA 10766.20
10-yr Tsy 4.38 %


April Showers, May Flowers

  • May 2005 Comments... Stocks Trade Higher..Early Stages Of A New Consensus View?
  • Economic Outlook... Mixed Economy Signals... Payroll Employment Up... European Growth Slowing... Tough Year Ahead For Labor
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Consumer and Producer Prices Move Higher... More Regulations Tightening Mortgage Credit
  • Stock Market Outlook... Industry Appeal Varies Widely... Large Caps Favored

May 2005


04/29/05

S&P500 1156.85
DJIA 10192.50
10-yr Tsy 4.20 %


Searching for a Bottom

  • April 2005 Comments...Stocks Trade Lower..Early Stages Of A New Consensus
  • Economic Outlook...Oil Continues To Weigh On The Global Economy...Unemployment Trends A Bright Spot In U.S.
  • Fixed Income Outlook... Prices Surge At Consumer Level...Employment Cost Data Positive... Productivity Improves
  • Stock Market Outlook...What We Look For...Sector Appeal

April 2005


03/31/05

S&P500 1180.59
DJIA 10503.80
10-yr Tsy 4.48 %


Oil Prices and Interest Rates

  • March 2005 Comments...Oil Prices Reach $57 Per Barrel...Interest Rates Continue To Rise...Commodity Prices At Highs
  • Economic Outlook...A Deceleration...Unemployment Falls...Capex Strong
  • Fixed Income Outlook... Fed Raises Rates ...Inflation Perks Up
  • Stock Market Outlook...Major Sector Differences...Stay Defensive... Too Early To Bargain-Hunt

March 2005


02/28/05

S&P500 1203.60
DJIA 10766.20
10-yr Tsy 4.38 %


January Effect...A Month Late

  • February 2005 Comments...Stock Prices Advance...Bonds Weaken...Growth Accelerates
  • Economic Outlook...U.S. Growth to Accelerate...Spring Employment Gains...Progress on Structural Reform
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Moves Higher...Fed Set to Raise Rates Again in March...Oil Prices Close to Highs
  • Stock Market Outlook...Leadership Continues to Shift...Bigger Remains Better

February 2005


01/31/05

S&P500 1181.27
DJIA 10489.90
10-yr Tsy 4.13 %


Chilly Winds of January

  • January 2005 Comments...Stock Prices Decline...Bonds Stable...Weather Prompts Energy Rise...Iraqi Elections Successful
  • Economic Outlook...Global Growth Slowdown...2004 GDP Growth To Be Revised Up...Payroll Gains As Expected
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Expect Further Fed Rate Hikes...Import Prices Up...Consumer And Producer Prices Edge Higher
  • Stock Market Outlook...Leadership Continues to Shift...Bigger is Better

January 2005


12/31/04

S&P500 1211.92
DJIA 10783.00
10-yr Tsy 4.22 %


Transitions

  • December 2004 Comments...Stocks Close Higher...Bonds Stable...Shifts Underway
  • Economic Outlook...Global Growth Slowing...Consumer Spending is Job-Dependent...Capex Will Drive 2005
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Fed Raises Rates...Import Prices Rise...Federal Budget Deficit Narrows...Commercial And Producer Prices Rise
  • Stock Market Outlook...Leadership Changes...Cost Controls vs. Revenue Growth...Exports vs.Imports

December 2004


11/30/04

S&P500 1173.82
DJIA 10428.00
10-yr Tsy 4.35%


Sound As A Dollar Or As Good As Gold

  • November 2004 Comments...Stocks Rally Sharply...Bonds And Dollar Weaken...As Oil Falls And Gold Surges
  • Economic Outlook...GDP Growth Improves...Jobs Growth Continues...Consumer Picture Mixed...Capex Remains Strong
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Wage Inflation Moderates...Consumer Prices Stable...Producer Prices Jump...Further Rate Hikes Comingl
  • Stock Market Outlook...Seasonal Factors Strong...Profit Margin Pressures Coming...Wage & Benefit Costs Moderating

November 2004


10/29/04

S&P500 1130.20
DJIA 10027.50
10-yr Tsy 4.03%


The Outlook Begins To Clear

  • October 2004 Comments...Energy Prices Surge...Elections Favor Republicans
  • Economic Outlook...GDP Growth Slows...Oil Prices...Capex Strong...Consumer Sends Mixed Signals
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Low...Many Commodity Prices Fall
  • Stock Market Outlook...Earnings Season Positive...Seasonal Factors a Benefit

October 2004


09/30/04

S&P500 1114.58
DJIA 10080.30
10-yr Tsy 4.12%


Uncertainties Linger, But Markets Perk Up
  • September 2004 Comments...Stocks Advance...Bonds Hold Their Ground...Weather, Energy, Elections And Employment Send Mixed Signals
  • Economic Outlook...GDP Grows...Capex Leads...China Resumes Growth
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Lower...Money Growth Slow...Bank Loans Strong...Consumers Resist Price Hikes
  • Stock Market Outlook...Earnings Season Begins...Mutual Fund Tax Year Ends October 31...Focus On Earnings & Dividends...President Signs Tax-Cut Extension

September 2004


08/31/04

S&P500 1104.24
DJIA 10173.90
10-yr Tsy 4.12%


Economy Moves Forward In Spite Of Uncertainties
  • August 2004 Comments...Stock Rise Slightly...Bonds Rally...Crosscurrents And Uncertainties Remain
  • Economic Outlook...GDP Growth Slow...Consumer Confidence Weakens With Job Prospects...Corporate Cash Flow Very Strong
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Prices Well-Behaved...Signs Of Lower Inflation...Productivity & Costs Favorable
  • Stock Market Outlook...Leadership...Strength...Profitability & Growth...Characteristics And Attributes That Successful Stock Portfolios Should Employ

August 2004


07/31/04

S&P500 1101.72
DJIA 10139.70
10-yr Tsy 4.48%


The Battle Rages On
  • July 2004 Comments...Stock Weak...Bonds Little-Changed...Uncertainties Linger
  • Economic Outlook...3% GDP Growth...Consumer Confidence Strong...Business Capital Spending Leads Growth
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Bond Investors Positioned For Higher Rates
  • Stock Market Outlook...Earnings Reports Strong...Capital Spending Upsurge...Sector Divergences

July 2004


06/30/04

S&P500 1140.84
DJIA 10435.50
10-yr Tsy 4.58%


Finally
  • June 2004 Comments...Stocks Record A Modest Positive Move...Bonds Stabilize...Politics And Policy Take Center Stage
  • Economic Outlook...Jobs Growth Continues...Consumer Spending Is Strong But Shifting...China Growth Slows...Capital Spending Strong
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Picks Up...GDP Growth Slows
  • Stock Market Outlook...Quality Is Alive & Well...Desirable Valuation Features...Sector Guide And Careful Stock-Picking

June 2004


05/31/04

S&P500 1125.21
DJIA 10268.51
10-yr Tsy 4.65%


Crosswinds And Riptides
  • May 2004 Comments...Bonds Retreat...Stock Mixed...Mixed Major Trends
  • Economic Outlook...Capital Spending Strong...Rising Prices In Many Sectors...Profit Margins At Record Highs
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Most Inflation Measures Rising...Budget Deficit Drops...Mortgage Applications Fall
  • Stock Market Outlook...Valuations Reasonable ...Global Growth Continues...Rates Will Rise, Not Rocket...Selection Is Key

May 2004


04/30/04

S&P500 1107.30
DJIA 10225.60
10-yr Tsy 4.51%


Tug Of War
  • April 2004 Comments...Economy Strong...Profits Soar...Interest Rate Worries
  • Economic Outlook...Capital Spending Strong...Pricing Power...Consumer A Moderate Plus
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Rising Rates Lie Ahead: How Far And How Fast?
  • Stock Market Outlook...Strong Earnings Reports...Rate Fears...Possible Shifts in Leadership

April 2004


03/31/04

S&P500 1126.21
DJIA 1035.70
10-yr Tsy 3.84%


J-O-B-S
  • March 2004 Comments...Stocks Consolidate Then Rally...Bonds Weaken As Jobs Increase
  • Economic Outlook...Broad and Self-Sustaining Recovery...Capital Spending, Overseas Strength to Complement Jobs Growth
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Jobs Report Pushes Rates Higher...Inflation Reports Still Benign...Commodity Prices Reflect Global Growth
  • Stock Market Outlook...Pricing Power Returning To Select Sectors

March 2004


02/29/04

S&P500 1144.94
DJIA 10583.90
10-yr Tsy 3.97%


Inflection Point
  • February 2004 Comments … Stocks Move Up…Bonds Mark Time
  • Economic Outlook...Employment Indicators Mixed…Presidential Campaign Affects Confidence…Corporate Profits Strong
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Still Well-Behaved…Services Inflation… Commodity Prices Rise On Chinese Demand
  • Stock Market Outlook...Shift Toward Global Competitors Underway…Valuation Favors Large Cap Growth…Dollar Weakness Favors Exporters

February 2004


01/31/04

S&P500 1131.13
DJIA 10488.10
10-yr Tsy 4.13%


Too Far, Too Fast?
  • January 2004 Comments...Stocks Move Ahead...Bonds Hold Value
  • Economic Outlook...News Remains Favorable...Payrolls Recovering Slowly...GDP Rise Moderate...Retail Sales Strong
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Low And Dropping...Government Receipts Set To Rise...Trade Deficit To Narrow
  • Stock Market Outlook...Transition To New Leadership...Sector Outlook

January 2004


12/31/03

S&P500 1111.92
DJIA 10453.90
10-yr Tsy 4.25%


Happy New Year

  • December 2003 Comments...Stocks Rise Steadily And Sharply...Bonds Encouraged By Fed Comments...Dollar Remains Weak
  • Economic Outlook...Uniformly Favorable Data...Jobs Outlook Positive...Capital Outlays Rising
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Fed Reserve Policy Remains On Hold...Inflation Still Low...Commercial And Industrial Loans Slow
  • Stock Market Outlook...2004 Outlook - Expect Leadership To Change...Sector Outlook - Selectivity

December 2003


11/30/03

S&P500 1058.20
DJIA 9782.46
10-yr Tsy 4.33%


Harmonizing

  • November 2003 Comments...Stocks Consolidate Recent Gains...Bonds Trade Lower On Economic Strength
  • Economic Outlook...GDP Revised Upward...Consumer Sentiment Improves...Jobless Claims Fall...Profits Surge
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Interest Rates Expected To Rise In 2004...Inflation Remains Low...Administration Retreats From Protectionism...Weak Dollar Continues
  • Stock Market Outlook...Raise Exposure To Capital Spending...Raise Exposure To Profit Recovery...Selectivity Is The Watchword In Financial Services

November 2003


10/31/03

S&P500 1050.71
DJIA 9801.12
10-yr Tsy 4.30%


Bulls And Bears

  • October 2003 Comments...Stocks Sharply Higher...Bonds Slip In Value...Economic Background Strengthens...Earnings & Dividends Do Indeed Matter
  • Economic Outlook...Manufacturing Expands...Inventories Bare...Consumers Confident...Employment Outlook Improving
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Remains Low...Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady...Be Defensive
  • Stock Market Outlook...Raise Exposure To Capital Spending...Raise Exposure To Cyclical Profit Growth...Defer Additional Defensive Investing

October 2003


09/30/03

S&P500 995.97
DJIA

9275.06

10-yr Tsy 3.94%


Matter And Anti-Matter

  • September 2003 Comments...Stocks Push Upwards...Bonds Sell Off...Positive Payroll Growth...What Matters In The Months Ahead
  • Economic Outlook...GDP Expands In Second Quarter...Current Quarter GDP Growth Of 5% Or More...Consumer Spending Rises
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Rates To Stay Low Pending Jobs Growth...Inflation Remains Low...Government Spending Surges
  • Stock Market Outlook...Earnings And Dividends Matter...Earnings Reporting Season Should Be Positive...Business Investment In Recovery Mode

September 2003


08/31/03

S&P500 1008.01
DJIA 9415.82
10-yr Tsy 4.47%


At Long Last...Recovery

  • August 2003 Comments...Stocks Resume Uptrend...Bonds Remain Weak...Economic Signals Encouraging
  • Economic Outlook...Strong Retail Sales...Housing Moves Higher...Order Rates Move Up...Employment Trends Disappoint
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Remains Low...Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged
  • Stock Market Outlook...Rotational Market Interest...Stress Dividends And Quality...Earnings Reporting Season Ahead

August 2003


07/31/03

S&P500 990.31
DJIA 9233.80
10-yr Tsy 4.47%


A Refreshing Pause

  • July 2003 Comments...Stocks Labor...Bonds Weak...Economic Indicators Positive
  • Economic Outlook...Purchasing Managers Optimistic...Consumer Spending Strong...Employment Predication Mixed
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Remains Subdued...Commodity Prices Surge...Mortgage Rates At Year's High
  • Stock Market Outlook...Financial Services...Exporters...Brand Names...Energy

July 2003


06/30/03

S&P500 974.50
DJIA 8985.44
10-yr Tsy 3.52%


Rally Approaches Earnings Season

  • June 2003 Comments...Stocks Strong...Bond Yields Rise...Markets Suggest Economic Rebound Is On Its Way
  • Economic Outlook...Indicators Mostly Positive...Unemployment Rises...Leading Indicators Ahead Sharply
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Fed Reduces Rates For 13th Time Since Early 2001...Wholesale Prices Down...Consumer Prices Show Some Upside
  • Stock Market Outlook...Valuations Vary Widely...Insider Selling Rises...Sentiment Measures Suggest Pullback

June 2003


05/31/03

S&P500 963.59
DJIA 8850.26
10-yr Tsy 3.37%


The Beat Goes On

  • May 2003 Comments...Stocks Strong...Bonds To New Highs...Looking For Consistency
  • Economic Outlook...Indicators Mixed...Mild Pickup Likely Over 2003
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Muted....Corporate Profit Growth To Accelerate Modestly
  • Stock Market Outlook...Reserves High...Buyers Testing The Water...Stock Selection Critical

May 2003


04/30/03

S&P500 916.92
DJIA 8480.09
10-yr Tsy 3.84%


Spring In The Markets

  • April 2003 Comments...Rapid And Successful War Effort...Positive Surprises Dominate Earnings Reports...Stocks Rall, Bonds Stabilize
  • Economic Outlook...War And Weather Distortions Affect Data...Employment Data Still Poor...Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS) Impact Peaking
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Mixed Signals From Price Data...Bonds Little Changed
  • Stock Market Outlook...Valuations Reasonable...Earnings Growth Decent...Yields Low On Alternative Investments

April 2003


03/31/03

S&P500 848.18
DJIA 7992.13
10-yr Tsy 3.80%


Recipe For Higher Stock Prices

  • March 2003 Comments...Stocks RallyOn War News...Bonds Hold Value...Oil, Gold Lower, Dollar Rises
  • Economic Outlook...Upcoming Data Distorted By War...Recent Data Distorted By Weather...Continue To Expect Mid-Year Recovery
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Yields Remain At 40-Year Lows...Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged...Inflation Measures Rise
  • Stock Market Outlook...Valuations At Historical Averages...Under-Funded Pension Plans...Reluctant Mutual Funds...Individuals Increase Savings

March 2003


02/28/03

S&P500 841.15
DJIA 7891.08
10-yr Tsy 3.69%


Preparations

  • February 2003 Comments...Stocks Drift Lower...Bonds Rally To New Highs...War Nears?
  • Economic Outlook...Reports Mixed...Conflicting Readings On Consumer Confidence...GDP Report Suggests Turn In Capital Outlays
  • Fixed Income Outlook...Fed To Consider Rates Again...Gold Stabilizes...Inflation Measures Rise
  • Stock Market Outlook...Dividends Are Important...Diversification And Financial Strength...Service Economy...Demographics And China Impact

February 2003


01/31/03

S&P500 855.70
DJIA 8053.81
10-yr Tsy 3.96%


Searching For Value

  • January 2003 Comments...Stock Values Drop...Bonds Hold Steady...Investors Choices
  • Economic Outlook...G