August 2008
07/31/08
| S&P500 |
1267 |
| DJIA |
11378 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
102.50% |
|
August 2008
- August 2008 Comments -
Rebates and Realty, Which Prevails?
- This Month's Focus - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
|
July 2008
06/30/08
| S&P500 |
1280 |
| DJIA |
11350 |
| 5-yr Tsy |
102.20% |
|
July 2008
- July 2008 Comments-
The Difference A Month Makes
- This Month's Fixed Income Focus
|
June 2008
|
June 2008
- June 2008 Comments-
End of The Spring Thaw?
- Political Resolution or More Uncertainty
- This Month's Fixed Income Focus - Cross- Currents in the Bond Market
|
May
2008
|
May 2008
- May 2008 Comments-
The Check is in the Mail
- Stock Market Rally- Bear Trap or New Bull Market
- Inflation Trends Bear Watching
- This Month's Focus - Mixed Data for April, Bond Market Conundrum, and Increasing Budget Deficit
|
April
2008
03/31/08
| S&P500 |
1323 |
| DJIA |
12263 |
| 5-yr Tsy |
2.43% |
|
April 2008
- April 2008 Comments-
A Month for the Record Books
- Is the End in Sight
- Beacon Investment Strategy
- This month's Focus-"Unprecedented" Fed Response, Proposed Regulatory Overhaul and Fixed Income Perspective
|
March
2008
02/28/08
| S&P500 |
1331 |
| DJIA |
12266 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
105.91 |
|
March 2008
- March 2008 Comments-
Political Sideshow Offers Limited Economic Solutions
- Economy Continues to Suffer From Asset Based Deterioration
- This
Month's Focus
- Municipal Bonds, Treasury Yield Curve and the Federal Reserve
|
February
2008
01/31/08
| S&P500 |
1379 |
| DJIA |
12650 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
3.60 % |
|
February 2008
- February 2008 Comments-
Interest Rate Cuts & Fiscal Stimulus. Is It Enough?
- Federal Reserve Asleep At The Switch?
- Are Interest Rate Reductions and Fiscal Stimulus The Answer?
- This
Month's Focus
- The Federal Reserve's Easing Moves in Perspective
|
January
2008
12/31/07
| S&P500 |
1479 |
| DJIA |
13366 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.10 % |
|
January 2008
- January 2008 Comments-
Home Price Erosion Still Impacting The Economy
- Equity Market
Outlook -
Equity Prices Will Lead The Recovery
- This
Month's Focus
- An Update On Municipal Bond Insurance
|
December
2007
11/31/07
| S&P500 |
1481 |
| DJIA |
13372 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
3.94 % |
|
December 2007
- December 2007 Comments-
More Turmoil Related to Reality
- Equity Market
Outlook -
More Pressure From Economic Concerns
- This
Month's Focus
- Fixed Income Potpourri
|
November
2007
10/31/07
| S&P500 |
1549 |
| DJIA |
13930 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.47 % |
|
November 2007
- November 2007 Comments-
Federal Reserve to the Rescue?
- Equity Market
Outlook -
Volatility Growing As Concerns Mount
- This
Month's Focus
- Dollar Weakness Favorable or Unfavorable for the US Economy?
|
October
2007
09/28//07
| S&P500 |
1527 |
| DJIA |
13896 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.59 % |
|
October 2007
- October 2007 Comments-
Tentative Signs of a Rebound, But Can It Last?
- Economic
Outlook -
Federal Reserve Blinks
- Equity Market Outlook
- Low, Low, Low Expectations, But....
- This
Month's Focus
- What's the Fed Likely To Do Next?
|
September
2007
08/31/07
| S&P500 |
1474 |
| DJIA |
13358 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.62 % |
|
September 2007
- September 2007 Comments-
It's Official, Stock Market Corrects
- Economic
Outlook -
Still Growing But at a Slower Pace
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Earnings Growth Slowing But Still Strong
- This
Month's Focus
- Foreign Ownership of U.S. Treasuries (Data Are As of March 31, 2007)
|
August
2007
07/31/07
| S&P500 |
1455 |
| DJIA |
13212 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.77 % |
|
August 2007
- July 2007 Comments-
Another Summer Swoon
- Economic
Outlook -
Fed receives Some Good News
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Strong Earnings Overshadowed By Subprime Fears
- This
Month's Focus
- Dr. Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve System
|
July
2007
06/29/07
| S&P500 |
1503 |
| DJIA |
13409 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
5.03 % |
|
July 2007
- July 2007 Comments-
Rising Rates Cause Volatility To Return To Stock Market
- Economic
Outlook -
Fed Still Sees Greater Risk From Inflation
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Earnings Reports The Next Market Signpost
- This
Month's Focus
- Corporate Bonds
|
June
2007
05/31/07
| S&P500 |
1531 |
| DJIA |
13628 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.89 % |
|
June 2007
- June 2007 Comments-
Stocks Climb A Wall Of Worry To A New Closing High
- Economic
Outlook -
Fed Seeks To Earn Credibility With Focus On Inflation
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Investors Focus On Economic Outlook
- This
Month's Focus
- The Federal Budget
|
May 2007
04/31/07
| S&P500 |
1482 |
| DJIA |
13063 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.63 % |
|
May 2007
- May 2007 Comments-
Strong Earnings And Liquidity Propel Market Higher
- Economic
Outlook -
US Economic Growth Slows
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Stocks Remain Supported By Fundamentals
- This
Month's Focus
- The Employment Picture
|
April
2007
03/31/07
| S&P500 |
1421 |
| DJIA |
12354 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.65 % |
|
April 2007
- April 2007 Comments-
Subprime Mortgage Worries Resurface Towards Month End
- Economic
Outlook -
Continued Strong Employment Remains Key
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Stocks In Trading Range Until Clarity On Housing Emerges
- This
Month's Focus
- Subprime Mortgages
|
>March
2007
02/28/07
| S&P500 |
1407 |
| DJIA |
12269 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.57
% |
|
March 2007
- March 2007 Comments-
China Rout Leads Stocks Down Worldwide
- Economic
Outlook -
GDP Indicates Growth Is Slowing But Consumer Still Supportive
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Where Do We Go From Here?
- This
Month's Focus
- Taxable Fixed Income
|
February
2007
01/31/07
| S&P500 |
1438 |
| DJIA |
12622 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.81
% |
|
February 2007
- February 2007 Comments-
Solid Start to 2007 Despite Lack of Clarity
- Economic
Outlook -
Growth Remains Solid, Inflation Moderates
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Investors Complacent About Earnings Growth?
- This
Month's Focus
- The Rebirth Of Dividends
|
January
2007
12/30/06
| S&P500 |
1418 |
| DJIA |
12463 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.70
% |
|
January 2007
- January 2007 Comments-
Ending 2006 On Higher Ground
- Economic
Outlook -
Housing On the Mend?
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Easing Into The New Year
- This
Month's Focus
- Is Fed Easing Good For Stocks?
|
December
2006
11/30/06
| S&P500 |
1401 |
| DJIA |
12222 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.46
% |
|
December 2006
- December 2006 Comments-
Solid Month Amid Increased Volatility
- Economic
Outlook -
Rising Inventories Reflect Slowing Demand and Production
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Continued Strong Corporate Profits Remain Key
- This
Month's Focus
- Democrats Take Control of The House and Senate
|
November
2006
10/31/06
| S&P500 |
1378 |
| DJIA |
12081 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.60
% |
|
November 2006
- November 2006 Comments-
Earnings Still Solid But Guidance is Mixed
- Economic
Outlook -
Third Quarter Real GDP Confirms Housing-Led Slowdown
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Fourth Quarter Rally to Roll On?
- This
Month's Focus
- Large-Caps Finally Flexing Some Muscle
|
October
2006
9/29/06
| S&P500 |
1336 |
| DJIA |
11679 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.63
% |
|
October 2006
- October 2006 Comments-
Stocks End the Month and Quarter on a High Note
- Economic
Outlook -
Housing's Impact By the Numbers
- Financial
Market Outlook
- S&P Earnings Growth Still Strong But Decelerating
- This
Month's Focus
- Private Equity Firms Are Turning to the Tech Sector for Buyouts
|
September
2006
08/31/06
| S&P500 |
1304 |
| DJIA |
11381 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.73
% |
|
September 2006
- September 2006
Comments
-Finally a Good Month for Stocks
- Economic
Outlook -
Housing and the Consumer, Perfect Together?
- Financial
Market Outlook
-September & October - Spooky for Stocks?
- This
Month's Focus
- Record Buybacks Boost Earnings Per Share
|
August
2006
07/31/06
| S&P500 |
1277 |
| DJIA |
11186 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.98
% |
|
August 2006
- August 2006
Comments
-A Consumer-Led Slowdown
- Economic
Outlook -
More of the Same
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Large-Caps Look Relatively Cheap
- This
Month's Focus
- What the NASDAQ Is Telling Us, Technically-Speaking
|
July
2006
06/30/06
| S&P500 |
1270 |
| DJIA |
11150 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
5.15
% |
|
July 2006
- July 2006
Comments
-The FOMC Strikes Again, But the End Could Be Near
- Economic
Outlook -
Softness is Evident
- Financial
Market Outlook
- The Summer Doldrums?
- This
Month's Focus
- Record M&A Deals Aim to Increase Shareholder Value
|
June
2006
05/31/06
| S&P500 |
1270 |
| DJIA |
11168 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
5.12
% |
|
June 2006
- May 2006
Comments
-The Market's Wall of Worry
- Economic
Outlook -
Oil and Housing Should Slow Growth
- Financial
Market Outlook
- A "Soft Landing" Is Good For Stocks
- This
Month's Focus
- What is a Market Correction?
|
May
2006
04/28/06
| S&P500 |
1311 |
| DJIA |
11367 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
5.05
% |
|
May 2006
- April 2006
Comments
-Interest Rate Fears Keep Stocks Range Bound
- Economic
Outlook -
Surprising Strength
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Accentuate the Positive
- This
Month's Focus
- Where Should I Invest Today?
|
April
2006
03/31/06
| S&P500 |
1295 |
| DJIA |
11109 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.85
% |
|
April 2006
- March 2006
Comments
- Strong Quarter for Stocks
- Economic
Outlook -
Balancing Act for the Fed
- Financial
Market Outlook
- We've Come a Long Way
- This
Month's Focus
- Which Portfolio is Right for Me?
|
March
2006
02/28/06
| S&P500 |
1281 |
| DJIA |
10993 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.55
% |
|
March 2006
- February 2006
Comments
- Focus on the Red
- Economic
Outlook -
Consumer Still Strong
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Favor Stocks on Balance
- This
Month's Focus
- The Inverted Yield Curve
|
February
2006
01/31/06
| S&P500 |
1280 |
| DJIA |
10865 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.52
% |
|
February 2006
- January 2006
Comments
- Mr. Greenspan's Tenure Ends
- Economic
Outlook -
The Economy Continues to Grow, Albeit at a Slower Pace
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Domestic and International Corporate Profits Strong
- This
Month's Focus
- Domestic Economic Indicators
|
January
2006
12/30/05
| S&P500 |
1248 |
| DJIA |
10718 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.39
% |
|
January 2006
- December
2005 Comments
- Corporate Balance Sheets Healthier than Consumers
- Economic
Outlook -
The End of Overnight Interest Rate Hikes is Near
- Financial
Market Outlook
-SEC Reviews Hedge Funds. Money Market Rates Rising
- This
Month's Focus
- Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
|
December
2005
11/30/05
| S&P500 |
12049 |
| DJIA |
10806 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.49
% |
|
December 2005
- November
2005 Comments
- Energy Prices
Fall, Consumer
Sentiment &
Markets Rise
- Economic
Outlook -
Overall Growth
Despite Pockets
of Weakness
- Financial
Market Outlook
-Record Corporate
Profits Favor
Stocks
- This
Month's Focus
- Areas Benefiting
from Rising
Interest Rates
|
November
2005
10/31/05
| S&P500 |
1207.01 |
| DJIA |
10440.01 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.55
% |
|
November 2005
- October
2005 Comments
- Rising Interest
Rates,
Profit
Reports,
Hurricane
Excuses
- Economic
Outlook -
Greenspan's
Replacement,
Storm Recovery,
Lower Gas Prices
- Financial
Market Outlook
-Interest Rates
Rise, Strong
Corporate Profits
- This
Month's Focus
- Classes of
Investments
& Long Term
Outlook
|
October
2005
09/31/05
| S&P500 |
1228.81 |
| DJIA |
10538.00 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.33
% |
|
October 2005
- September
2005 Comment
- In Spite of
Hurricanes,
Inflation
Fears
Rise
- Economic
Outlook -
Hurricane Season,
Short & Long-Term
Effects
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Late Cyclicals
and Defensive
Stocks Should
Outperform
- This
Month's Focus
- Know Your
Investment Objectives
and Restraints
|
September
2005
08/31/05
| S&P500 |
1220.33 |
| DJIA |
10481.60 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.02
% |
|
In
Memory of Bill Ottterbein
- August
2005 Comment
- Strong
Economy, Rising
Interest Rates
& High
Energy
Prices
- Economic
Outlook -
Continued Global
Growth At Varied
Rates
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Phase of
Economic Cycle
Favors Consistent
Performing Company
Stocks
and Short Duration
Bonds
- This
Month's Focus
- Investment
Style, Growth
vs. Income,
Size & Duration
|
August
2005
07/29/05
| S&P500 |
1234.18 |
| DJIA |
10640.90 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.28
% |
|
In
Memory of John Gustafson
- July
2005 Comment
- Strong
Economy, Surging
Stocks & Rising
Interest Rates
- Economic
Outlook -
Decelerating
US Growth. New
Legislation
May Cause Bumps
- Financial
Market Outlook
- Continued
Economic Growth
Results in Higher
Stock Prices
and Higher Interest
Rates
- This
Month's Focus
- China's Currency
Revaluation
and Its Implications
|
July
2005
06/30/05
| S&P500 |
1191.33 |
| DJIA |
10275.00 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
3.92
% |
|
June
Bugs
- June
2005 Comments...
Stocks
Volatile..Bond
Rates
Remain
Low
- Economic
Outlook...
Economy
Signals Mixed...
Part of European
In Recession
With Unemployment
High... Tough
Year Ahead For
Labor
- Fixed
Income Outlook...Consumer
and Producer
Prices Down...
More Regulations
Tightening Mortgage
Credit... Energy
& Highway Legislation
- Stock
Market Outlook...
Industry Appeal
Varies Widely...
Large Caps Favored
|
June
2005
05/31/05
| S&P500 |
1230.60 |
| DJIA |
10766.20 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.38
% |
|
April
Showers, May Flowers
- May
2005 Comments...
Stocks
Trade
Higher..Early
Stages
Of
A New
Consensus
View?
- Economic
Outlook...
Mixed Economy
Signals... Payroll
Employment Up...
European Growth
Slowing... Tough
Year Ahead For
Labor
- Fixed
Income Outlook...Consumer
and Producer
Prices Move
Higher... More
Regulations
Tightening Mortgage
Credit
- Stock
Market Outlook...
Industry Appeal
Varies Widely...
Large Caps Favored
|
May
2005
04/29/05
| S&P500 |
1156.85 |
| DJIA |
10192.50 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.20
% |
|
Searching
for a Bottom
- April
2005 Comments...Stocks
Trade
Lower..Early
Stages
Of
A New
Consensus
- Economic
Outlook...Oil
Continues To
Weigh On The
Global Economy...Unemployment
Trends A Bright
Spot In U.S.
- Fixed
Income Outlook...
Prices Surge
At Consumer
Level...Employment
Cost Data Positive...
Productivity
Improves
- Stock
Market Outlook...What
We Look For...Sector
Appeal
|
April
2005
03/31/05
| S&P500 |
1180.59 |
| DJIA |
10503.80 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.48
% |
|
Oil
Prices and Interest
Rates
- March
2005 Comments...Oil
Prices
Reach
$57
Per
Barrel...Interest
Rates
Continue
To
Rise...Commodity
Prices
At
Highs
- Economic
Outlook...A
Deceleration...Unemployment
Falls...Capex
Strong
- Fixed
Income Outlook...
Fed Raises
Rates ...Inflation
Perks Up
- Stock
Market Outlook...Major
Sector Differences...Stay
Defensive...
Too Early To
Bargain-Hunt
|
March
2005
02/28/05
| S&P500 |
1203.60 |
| DJIA |
10766.20 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.38
% |
|
January
Effect...A Month Late
- February
2005 Comments...Stock
Prices
Advance...Bonds
Weaken...Growth
Accelerates
- Economic
Outlook...U.S.
Growth to Accelerate...Spring
Employment Gains...Progress
on Structural
Reform
- Fixed
Income Outlook...Inflation
Moves Higher...Fed
Set to Raise
Rates Again
in March...Oil
Prices Close
to Highs
- Stock
Market Outlook...Leadership
Continues to
Shift...Bigger
Remains Better
|
February
2005
01/31/05
| S&P500 |
1181.27 |
| DJIA |
10489.90 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.13
% |
|
Chilly
Winds of January
- January
2005 Comments...Stock
Prices
Decline...Bonds
Stable...Weather
Prompts
Energy
Rise...Iraqi
Elections
Successful
- Economic
Outlook...Global
Growth Slowdown...2004
GDP Growth To
Be Revised Up...Payroll
Gains As Expected
- Fixed
Income Outlook...Expect
Further Fed
Rate Hikes...Import
Prices Up...Consumer
And Producer
Prices Edge
Higher
- Stock
Market Outlook...Leadership
Continues to
Shift...Bigger
is Better
|
January
2005
12/31/04
| S&P500 |
1211.92 |
| DJIA |
10783.00 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.22
% |
|
Transitions
- December
2004 Comments...Stocks
Close
Higher...Bonds
Stable...Shifts
Underway
- Economic
Outlook...Global
Growth Slowing...Consumer
Spending is
Job-Dependent...Capex
Will Drive 2005
- Fixed
Income Outlook...Fed
Raises Rates...Import
Prices Rise...Federal
Budget Deficit
Narrows...Commercial
And Producer
Prices Rise
- Stock
Market Outlook...Leadership
Changes...Cost
Controls vs.
Revenue Growth...Exports
vs.Imports
|
December 2004
11/30/04
| S&P500 |
1173.82 |
| DJIA |
10428.00 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.35% |
|
Sound
As A Dollar Or As
Good As Gold
- November
2004 Comments...Stocks
Rally
Sharply...Bonds
And
Dollar
Weaken...As
Oil
Falls
And
Gold
Surges
- Economic
Outlook...GDP
Growth Improves...Jobs
Growth Continues...Consumer
Picture Mixed...Capex
Remains Strong
- Fixed
Income Outlook...Wage
Inflation Moderates...Consumer
Prices Stable...Producer
Prices Jump...Further
Rate Hikes Comingl
- Stock
Market Outlook...Seasonal
Factors Strong...Profit
Margin Pressures
Coming...Wage
& Benefit Costs
Moderating
|
November 2004
10/29/04
| S&P500 |
1130.20 |
| DJIA |
10027.50 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.03% |
|
The
Outlook Begins To
Clear
- October
2004 Comments...Energy
Prices Surge...Elections
Favor Republicans
- Economic
Outlook...GDP
Growth Slows...Oil
Prices...Capex
Strong...Consumer
Sends Mixed
Signals
- Fixed
Income Outlook...Inflation
Low...Many
Commodity
Prices Fall
- Stock
Market Outlook...Earnings
Season Positive...Seasonal
Factors a
Benefit
|
|
October 2004
09/30/04
| S&P500 |
1114.58 |
| DJIA |
10080.30 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.12% |
|
Uncertainties
Linger, But Markets
Perk Up
- September 2004
Comments...Stocks
Advance...Bonds
Hold Their Ground...Weather, Energy, Elections And Employment Send Mixed Signals
- Economic
Outlook...GDP
Grows...Capex
Leads...China
Resumes Growth
- Fixed
Income Outlook...Inflation
Lower...Money
Growth Slow...Bank
Loans Strong...Consumers
Resist Price
Hikes
- Stock Market Outlook...Earnings Season Begins...Mutual Fund Tax Year Ends October 31...Focus On Earnings & Dividends...President Signs Tax-Cut Extension
|
|
September 2004
08/31/04
| S&P500 |
1104.24 |
| DJIA |
10173.90 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.12% |
|
Economy
Moves Forward In Spite
Of Uncertainties
- August 2004
Comments...Stock
Rise Slightly...Bonds
Rally...Crosscurrents
And Uncertainties
Remain
- Economic
Outlook...GDP
Growth Slow...Consumer
Confidence
Weakens With
Job Prospects...Corporate
Cash Flow
Very Strong
- Fixed
Income Outlook...Prices
Well-Behaved...Signs
Of Lower Inflation...Productivity
& Costs Favorable
- Stock
Market Outlook...Leadership...Strength...Profitability
& Growth...Characteristics
And Attributes
That Successful
Stock Portfolios
Should Employ
|
August 2004
07/31/04
| S&P500 |
1101.72 |
| DJIA |
10139.70 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.48% |
|
The Battle Rages On
- July 2004 Comments...Stock Weak...Bonds Little-Changed...Uncertainties Linger
- Economic Outlook...3% GDP Growth...Consumer Confidence Strong...Business Capital Spending Leads Growth
- Fixed Income Outlook...Bond Investors Positioned For Higher Rates
- Stock Market Outlook...Earnings Reports Strong...Capital Spending Upsurge...Sector Divergences
|
July 2004
06/30/04
| S&P500 |
1140.84 |
| DJIA |
10435.50 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.58% |
|
Finally
- June 2004 Comments...Stocks Record A Modest Positive Move...Bonds Stabilize...Politics And Policy Take Center Stage
- Economic Outlook...Jobs Growth Continues...Consumer Spending Is Strong But Shifting...China Growth Slows...Capital Spending Strong
- Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Picks Up...GDP Growth Slows
- Stock Market Outlook...Quality Is Alive & Well...Desirable Valuation Features...Sector Guide And Careful Stock-Picking
|
|
June 2004
05/31/04
| S&P500 |
1125.21 |
| DJIA |
10268.51 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.65% |
|
Crosswinds
And Riptides
- May 2004 Comments...Bonds Retreat...Stock Mixed...Mixed Major Trends
- Economic Outlook...Capital Spending Strong...Rising Prices In Many Sectors...Profit Margins At Record Highs
- Fixed Income Outlook...Most Inflation Measures Rising...Budget Deficit Drops...Mortgage Applications Fall
- Stock Market Outlook...Valuations Reasonable ...Global Growth Continues...Rates Will Rise, Not Rocket...Selection Is Key
|
|
May 2004
04/30/04
| S&P500 |
1107.30 |
| DJIA |
10225.60 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.51% |
|
Tug Of War
- April 2004 Comments...Economy Strong...Profits Soar...Interest Rate Worries
- Economic Outlook...Capital Spending Strong...Pricing Power...Consumer A Moderate Plus
- Fixed Income Outlook...Rising Rates Lie Ahead: How Far And How Fast?
- Stock Market Outlook...Strong Earnings Reports...Rate Fears...Possible Shifts in Leadership
|
April 2004
03/31/04
| S&P500 |
1126.21 |
| DJIA |
1035.70 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
3.84% |
|
J-O-B-S
- March 2004 Comments...Stocks Consolidate Then Rally...Bonds Weaken As Jobs Increase
- Economic Outlook...Broad and Self-Sustaining Recovery...Capital Spending, Overseas Strength to Complement Jobs Growth
- Fixed Income Outlook...Jobs Report Pushes Rates Higher...Inflation Reports Still Benign...Commodity Prices Reflect Global Growth
- Stock Market Outlook...Pricing Power Returning To Select Sectors
|
March 2004
02/29/04
| S&P500 |
1144.94 |
| DJIA |
10583.90 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
3.97% |
|
Inflection Point
- February 2004 Comments
… Stocks Move Up…Bonds Mark Time
- Economic Outlook...Employment Indicators Mixed…Presidential Campaign Affects Confidence…Corporate Profits Strong
- Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Still Well-Behaved…Services Inflation… Commodity Prices Rise On Chinese Demand
- Stock Market Outlook...Shift Toward Global Competitors Underway…Valuation Favors Large Cap Growth…Dollar Weakness Favors Exporters
|
|
February 2004
01/31/04
| S&P500 |
1131.13 |
| DJIA |
10488.10 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.13% |
|
Too Far, Too Fast?
- January 2004 Comments...Stocks Move Ahead...Bonds Hold Value
- Economic Outlook...News Remains Favorable...Payrolls Recovering Slowly...GDP Rise Moderate...Retail Sales Strong
- Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Low And Dropping...Government Receipts Set To Rise...Trade Deficit To Narrow
- Stock Market Outlook...Transition To New Leadership...Sector Outlook
|
January 2004
12/31/03
| S&P500 |
1111.92 |
| DJIA |
10453.90 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.25% |
|
Happy New Year
- December 2003 Comments...Stocks Rise Steadily And Sharply...Bonds Encouraged By Fed Comments...Dollar Remains Weak
- Economic Outlook...Uniformly Favorable Data...Jobs Outlook Positive...Capital Outlays Rising
- Fixed Income Outlook...Fed Reserve Policy Remains On Hold...Inflation Still Low...Commercial And Industrial Loans Slow
- Stock Market Outlook...2004 Outlook - Expect Leadership To Change...Sector Outlook - Selectivity
|
December 2003
11/30/03
| S&P500 |
1058.20 |
| DJIA |
9782.46 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.33% |
|
Harmonizing
- November 2003 Comments...Stocks Consolidate Recent Gains...Bonds Trade Lower On Economic Strength
- Economic Outlook...GDP Revised Upward...Consumer Sentiment Improves...Jobless Claims Fall...Profits Surge
- Fixed Income Outlook...Interest Rates Expected To Rise In 2004...Inflation Remains Low...Administration Retreats From Protectionism...Weak Dollar Continues
- Stock Market Outlook...Raise Exposure To Capital Spending...Raise Exposure To Profit Recovery...Selectivity Is The Watchword In Financial Services
|
November 2003
10/31/03
| S&P500 |
1050.71 |
| DJIA |
9801.12 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.30% |
|
Bulls And Bears
- October 2003 Comments...Stocks Sharply Higher...Bonds Slip In Value...Economic Background Strengthens...Earnings & Dividends Do Indeed Matter
- Economic Outlook...Manufacturing Expands...Inventories Bare...Consumers Confident...Employment Outlook Improving
- Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Remains Low...Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady...Be Defensive
- Stock Market Outlook...Raise Exposure To Capital Spending...Raise Exposure To Cyclical Profit Growth...Defer Additional Defensive Investing
|
October 2003
09/30/03
| S&P500 |
995.97 |
| DJIA |
9275.06
|
| 10-yr Tsy |
3.94% |
|
Matter And Anti-Matter
- September 2003 Comments...Stocks Push Upwards...Bonds Sell Off...Positive Payroll Growth...What Matters In The Months Ahead
- Economic Outlook...GDP Expands In Second Quarter...Current Quarter GDP Growth Of 5% Or More...Consumer Spending Rises
- Fixed Income Outlook...Rates To Stay Low Pending Jobs Growth...Inflation Remains Low...Government Spending Surges
- Stock Market Outlook...Earnings And Dividends Matter...Earnings Reporting Season Should Be Positive...Business Investment In Recovery Mode
|
September 2003
08/31/03
| S&P500 |
1008.01 |
| DJIA |
9415.82 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.47% |
|
At Long Last...Recovery
- August 2003 Comments...Stocks Resume Uptrend...Bonds Remain Weak...Economic Signals Encouraging
- Economic Outlook...Strong Retail Sales...Housing Moves Higher...Order Rates Move Up...Employment Trends Disappoint
- Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Remains Low...Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged
- Stock Market Outlook...Rotational Market Interest...Stress Dividends And Quality...Earnings Reporting Season Ahead
|
|
August 2003
07/31/03
| S&P500 |
990.31 |
| DJIA |
9233.80 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
4.47% |
|
A Refreshing
Pause
- July 2003 Comments...Stocks Labor...Bonds
Weak...Economic Indicators Positive
- Economic Outlook...Purchasing Managers
Optimistic...Consumer Spending Strong...Employment Predication
Mixed
- Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Remains
Subdued...Commodity Prices Surge...Mortgage Rates At Year's High
- Stock Market Outlook...Financial Services...Exporters...Brand
Names...Energy
|
|
July 2003
06/30/03
| S&P500 |
974.50 |
| DJIA |
8985.44 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
3.52% |
|
Rally
Approaches Earnings Season
- June 2003 Comments...Stocks Strong...Bond
Yields Rise...Markets Suggest Economic Rebound Is On Its Way
- Economic Outlook...Indicators Mostly Positive...Unemployment
Rises...Leading Indicators Ahead Sharply
- Fixed Income Outlook...Fed Reduces Rates
For 13th Time Since Early 2001...Wholesale Prices Down...Consumer
Prices Show Some Upside
- Stock Market Outlook...Valuations Vary
Widely...Insider Selling Rises...Sentiment Measures Suggest Pullback
|
|
June 2003
05/31/03
| S&P500 |
963.59 |
| DJIA |
8850.26 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
3.37% |
|
The Beat
Goes On
- May 2003 Comments...Stocks Strong...Bonds
To New Highs...Looking For Consistency
- Economic Outlook...Indicators Mixed...Mild
Pickup Likely Over 2003
- Fixed Income Outlook...Inflation Muted....Corporate
Profit Growth To Accelerate Modestly
- Stock Market Outlook...Reserves High...Buyers
Testing The Water...Stock Selection Critical
|
|
May 2003
04/30/03
| S&P500 |
916.92 |
| DJIA |
8480.09 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
3.84% |
|
Spring
In The Markets
- April 2003 Comments...Rapid And Successful
War Effort...Positive Surprises Dominate Earnings Reports...Stocks
Rall, Bonds Stabilize
- Economic Outlook...War And Weather Distortions
Affect Data...Employment Data Still Poor...Sudden Acute Respiratory
Syndrome(SARS) Impact Peaking
- Fixed Income Outlook...Mixed Signals From
Price Data...Bonds Little Changed
- Stock Market Outlook...Valuations Reasonable...Earnings
Growth Decent...Yields Low On Alternative Investments
|
|
April 2003
03/31/03
| S&P500 |
848.18 |
| DJIA |
7992.13 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
3.80% |
|
Recipe
For Higher Stock Prices
- March 2003 Comments...Stocks RallyOn War
News...Bonds Hold Value...Oil, Gold Lower, Dollar Rises
- Economic Outlook...Upcoming Data Distorted
By War...Recent Data Distorted By Weather...Continue To Expect
Mid-Year Recovery
- Fixed Income Outlook...Yields Remain At
40-Year Lows...Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged...Inflation Measures
Rise
- Stock Market Outlook...Valuations At Historical
Averages...Under-Funded Pension Plans...Reluctant Mutual Funds...Individuals
Increase Savings
|
|
March 2003
02/28/03
| S&P500 |
841.15 |
| DJIA |
7891.08 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
3.69% |
|
Preparations
- February 2003 Comments...Stocks Drift
Lower...Bonds Rally To New Highs...War Nears?
- Economic Outlook...Reports Mixed...Conflicting
Readings On Consumer Confidence...GDP Report Suggests Turn In
Capital Outlays
- Fixed Income Outlook...Fed To Consider
Rates Again...Gold Stabilizes...Inflation Measures Rise
- Stock Market Outlook...Dividends Are Important...Diversification
And Financial Strength...Service Economy...Demographics And China
Impact
|
|
February 2003
01/31/03
| S&P500 |
855.70 |
| DJIA |
8053.81 |
| 10-yr Tsy |
3.96% |
|
Searching
For Value
- January 2003 Comments...Stock Values Drop...Bonds
Hold Steady...Investors Choices
- Economic Outlook...G
|